GS / MS Pair Trade
Long Goldman Sachs, short Morgan Stanley on IB recovery and Financial Institutions Group cycle dispersion.
Executive summary
- Thesis
- Long GS on IB recovery and financing durability; short MS on wealth expectations priced for perfection.
- Price Targets
- GS $1,070 (+19%) / MS $130 (-29%).
- Catalysts
- IB backlog recovery, Basel III capital release, financing revenue mix shift, AWM scale.
- Risks
- Slower IB recovery; M&A cycle dependency; wealth-flow sensitivity.